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The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is gathering enough momentum to change the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Credit... Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times

Persons: Biden, Vladimir V, Putin, Nanna Heitmann Organizations: The New York Locations: Russia, Ukraine

covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.

Organizations: The Times

The warning was related to the attack on Friday, according to people briefed on the matter. Pro-Kremlin voices immediately seized on the U.S. Embassy’s warning to paint America as trying to scare Russians. And he has been quick to accuse Ukraine of acts of terrorism to justify his invasion of the country. But I would disabuse you at this early hour of any connection to Ukraine.”“Our thoughts obviously are going to be with the victims of this terrible, terrible shooting attack,” he also said. Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, said in a video statement that “Ukraine has absolutely nothing to do” with the attack.

Persons: Vladimir V, Putin, Mr, ”, John Kirby, Maria Zakharova, Washington, Mykhailo Podolyak, Aishvarya Kavi Organizations: U.S, Embassy, State Department, Kyiv, Biden’s National Security Council, White, Reuters, “ Locations: Moscow, America, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, U.S, Washington

The United States collected intelligence in March that Islamic State-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, the branch of the group based in Afghanistan, had been planning an attack on Moscow, according to officials. In addition to publicly warning on March 7 about a possible attack, U.S. officials said they had privately told Russian officials about the intelligence pointing to an impending attack. It is not clear how much information the United States gave Russian officials beyond what was in the public warning. Western intelligence agencies had collected intelligence about possible planning by ISIS-K to bomb the service. As in Russia, ISIS-K claimed responsibility for that attack.

Persons: ”, Vladimir V, Putin, Colin P, Clarke, Qassim Suleimani Organizations: Islamic State, United, ISIS, Soufan, Kremlin, United States Locations: Moscow, United States, State, Khorasan, Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, New York, Chechnya, Syria, Iran, U.S, United

☆ U.S. Says It Struck 5 Houthi Targets in Yemen, Including an Underwater Drone
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-18 | by ( Julian E. Barnes | More About Julian E. Barnes | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The United States struck five Houthi military targets, including an undersea drone, in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on Saturday, the U.S. military announced on Sunday. The use of the underwater drone is believed to have been the first time that Iran-backed Houthis had employed such a weapon since they began their campaign against ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden on Oct. 23, the military’s Central Command said in a statement. American military officials provided few details of what they called an “unmanned underwater vessel,” but the Houthis have received much of their drone and missile technology from Iran. In addition to the underwater drone, the Houthis were also using a remotely piloted boat, the statement said. The U.S. struck both the surface drone and the submarine drone and launched other strikes against anti-ship missiles, the military said in its statement, but provided no precise details on the location.

Persons: Houthis Organizations: U.S ., military’s, Command Locations: States, Houthi, Yemen, Iran, Gulf of Aden, U.S

U.S. officials said Israel’s apparent willingness to agree to a cessation of hostilities in return for the release of more hostages being held in Gaza has created a new opening for negotiations. Any new deal would likely include phased releases of hostages, though the White House is hoping that a more ambitious one, possibly leading to the release of all of the remaining hostages, might be possible. The talks were mediated by Qatar, which was negotiating with Hamas, as well as by Egypt. At least some of the officials last met in Warsaw in December, but those discussions stalled over Hamas’s insistence that the remaining hostages be released in exchange for a permanent cease-fire and larger prisoner releases. Israel rejected any permanent cease-fire and was pushing for a shorter pause in fighting.

Persons: William J, Burns, David Barnea, Barnea, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim, Abbas Kamel, Israel Organizations: Qatari, Hamas Locations: Europe, United States, Gaza, Israel, Qatar, Egypt, Thani, Warsaw

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after having shifted to a policy of open hostility, U.S. officials say. The officials have assessed that Mr. Kim’s recent harder line is part of a pattern of provocations, but that his declarations have been more aggressive than previous statements and should be taken seriously. While the officials added that they did not see an imminent risk of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim could carry out strikes in a way that he thinks would avoid rapid escalation. They pointed to North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island in 2010 as an example. The two sides exchanged artillery fire, resulting in the reported deaths of troops on both sides as well as civilians in the South, but both militaries soon stopped.

Persons: Kim Jong, Kim Organizations: South Locations: South Korea, Korean

For all the fears of an outbreak of fighting in the Middle East that could draw the United States, Israel and Iran into direct combat, a curious feature of the conflict so far is the care taken — in both Tehran and Washington — to avoid putting their forces into direct contact. No one knows how long that will last, American and European diplomats and other officials say. It is the most delicate of dances, rife with subtle signals, attacks and feints, and deniable action. The evidence of caution is piecemeal, but everywhere. That is considered the red line that could trigger military action against its underground nuclear complexes.

Persons: Washington — Locations: United States, Israel, Iran, Tehran, Washington, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon

Two members of the Navy SEALs remained missing on Saturday after a mishap two days ago while they were attempting to board a ship off the coast of Somalia, two current and two former Pentagon officials said. As part of those missions, the U.S. Navy and allies have been responding to distress calls. Over the past two days, the U.S. and allies have struck Houthi-linked targets in Yemen, trying to damage the militia’s offensive capabilities. In the latest incident, the members of the SEAL team were dispatched on Thursday to approach a suspicious vessel off the Somali coast, the officials said. It was unclear on Saturday what prompted the commandos to single out the vessel for a closer investigation.

Organizations: Navy, Pentagon, U.S . Navy Locations: Somalia, United States, Yemen, Red, U.S, Somali

On a rainy night in June, President Biden toasted Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India during a state dinner at the White House, celebrating “two great friends, and two great powers” — a gesture of flattery for a leader he has enlisted to help the United States check China’s ambition and counter Russia’s aggression. According to the White House, the president had no idea that a significant test to that relationship was unfolding, even during the state visit. On June 22, as Mr. Biden pulled out all of the diplomatic stops to bring Mr. Modi closer, a senior official in the Indian government was offering the “go ahead” approving the murder-for-hire plot surrounding a Sikh American on U.S. soil, according to a Justice Department indictment filed in a federal court in New York Wednesday. There was one flaw: The hit man turned out to be an undercover law enforcement officer, prosecutors said, and the plot was foiled. The suspect, an Indian national accused of trying to arrange the killing, was arrested in the Czech Republic on June 30, eight days after the state dinner.

Persons: Biden, Narendra Modi, ”, Modi Organizations: India, White Locations: United States, American, New York, Czech Republic

The target in New York was identified by American officials as Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who is general counsel for the New York-based group Sikhs for Justice. Mr. Pannun is an outspoken proponent of independence for the northern Indian state of Punjab, which is home to a large number of Sikhs, a powerful but minority group in the nation. The indictment said that the supposed hit man hired to kill Mr. Pannun was in fact a federal agent. agents warned a number of Sikh leaders around the United States about potential threats against them. Mr. Biden himself raised the issue directly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi when they met at the Group of 20 summit in September.

Persons: Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, Pannun, Adrienne Watson, Biden, Gupta, ”, ” Ms, Watson, William J, Burns, Narendra Modi Organizations: New, National Security Council, ”, Group Locations: New York, Punjab, Vancouver, F.B.I, United States, India

Neither Washington nor Tehran wants the conflict in the Gaza Strip to trigger a wider war in the region, officials in both capitals say. But in the seven weeks since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, Iranian-backed militias have launched more than 70 rocket and drone attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria. The Pentagon, for its part, has responded with four rounds of airstrikes, killing as many as 15 people, U.S. officials say. So far, none of the U.S. reprisal attacks have provoked an escalation, even the one last week in Iraq that killed several militants with Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group. The Pentagon said on Tuesday that the attacks had subsided at least temporarily — the most recent being on Nov. 23, the day before an operational pause in the Gaza war began.

Organizations: U.S, Pentagon, Hezbollah Locations: Washington, Tehran, Gaza, Israel, Iranian, Iraq, Syria, United States, East, South Asia

☆ U.S. Navy Rescues Ship From Pirate Attack in Gulf of Aden
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Julian E. Barnes | More About Julian E. Barnes | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Mason, a Navy destroyer, they fell well short of the mark: They landed in the Gulf of Aden 10 nautical miles from the American ship. The Central Park crew reported they were under attack from an unknown entity, U.S. Central Command said. When the coalition vessels arrived at the Central Park, they demanded the release of the ship. Five armed people fled from the ship and attempted to flee in the small boat they had used to attack the cargo ship. While the Houthi rebels struck in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden where the Central Park was attacked is far from their area of operations.

Persons: Mason, Aden —, Eyal Ofer Organizations: U.S . Navy, Navy, U.S, U.S . Central Command, American, Central Park, Fox News, Pentagon, Zodiac Maritime, Zodiac Locations: Gulf, Aden, Somalia, Yemen, Iranian, U.S, Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Red, London, Israeli

☆ C.I.A. Director Visits Israel and the Middle East Amid Israel-Hamas War
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Julian E. Barnes | More About Julian E. Barnes | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

director, arrived in Israel on Sunday for discussions with leaders and intelligence officials, the first stop in a multicountry trip in the region, according to U.S. officials. The United States is also looking to expand its intelligence sharing with Israel, providing information that could be useful about hostage locations or any follow-on attacks by Hamas. As one of the Biden administration’s most trusted voices on Middle East issues, Mr. Burns has become something of a roving troubleshooting diplomat for the White House. While the United States and Israel have blamed Hamas for the explosion, Hamas has said Israel is responsible. Mr. Burns has a particularly close relationship with King Abdullah.

Persons: William J, Burns, Israel, Burns’s, Antony J, Blinken, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, Netanyahu’s, America’s, Jordan, King Abdullah II, King Abdullah, King Hussein, Abdullah, Mr Organizations: Israel, U.S, Mr, Biden, White, American Locations: Israel, United States, Gaza, Iraq, Palestinian, U.S

American military officials say that the smaller bombs are much better suited to the dense urban environments of Gaza. The United States is now trying to send more of the smaller bombs to Israel, said the senior military official. If the United States can get those smaller munitions to Israel, American officials hope Israel will use them to mitigate the risk to civilians. The United States is also using aircraft on the two carriers in the Mediterranean to help collect additional intelligence, including electronic intercepts. While the United States has increased the amount of intelligence that it is sharing with Israel, U.S. officials stressed they are not helping Israel pick targets for strikes.

Persons: Biden, Blinken, Netanyahu, Nir, ” Israel, ”, Iddo Ben, Anat, “, Seth Moulton, ” Mr, Moulton, Mr Organizations: Israeli Defense Forces, The New York Times, United, Democratic, Hamas, ” Locations: Gaza, United States, Israel, U.S, Jabaliya, Gaza City, Lebanon, The United States, Amman, Jordan, Massachusetts, Iraq, Tel Aviv

The American strikes on two Iranian military munitions stockpiles in Syria on Friday were carefully designed, President Biden’s aides said, to send two distinct messages to Tehran. It is the latest gamble by the United States to modify Iran’s behavior, few of which have worked in the past. He quickly added that the United States “has no intention nor desire to engage in further hostilities” if the Iranian-backed attacks stop. But the Iranians wanted to do something to pressure the United States to rein in Israel and to remind the Americans of Tehran’s power, U.S. officials said. When Mr. Biden came into office, he tried to restore the nuclear deal, which had largely contained Iran’s nuclear activity, international nuclear inspectors said, until Mr. Trump pulled out of it.

Persons: Biden’s, Biden, John F, Kirby, ” Mr, Qassem, Lloyd J, Austin III, United States “, Mr, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Khamenei, Barack Obama, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Air Force, Pentagon, Iran’s Quds Force, U.S, ”, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Democratic Locations: Syria, Tehran, United States, Iran, East, U.S, Iraq, Iran’s Quds, Iranian, Israel, Lebanon, China

American intelligence officials said Tuesday they now had “high confidence” that the blast at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza last week was the result of a Palestinian rocket that broke up mid-flight, and that no Israeli weapon was involved in the explosion. Those include how many people were killed or injured when, by the U.S. account, the warhead of a Palestinian rocket landed in the parking lot of the hospital. Last week, U.S. officials said their early intelligence showed that the blast was caused by an armed Palestinian group, rebutting Palestinian claims that an Israeli strike caused the explosion. The evaluation reflected a higher degree of certainty by U.S. intelligence officials that Israel was not responsible for the blast. The declassified assessment provides no specific information on where U.S. intelligence officials think a rocket causing the blast was launched from inside Gaza.

Persons: Israel, Biden, ’, Rishi Sunak, ” Mr, Sunak Organizations: Ahli Arab Hospital, Hamas, New York Times, Palestinian, United States Locations: Al, Ahli, Gaza, U.S, Palestinian, Israel, Jihad, Israeli, United, “, Gaza City

President Biden and his top aides have been urging Israeli leaders against carrying out any major strike against Hezbollah, the powerful militia in Lebanon, that could draw it into the Israel-Hamas war, American and Israeli officials say. The Americans are conveying to the Israelis the difficulties of battling both Hamas in the south and a much more powerful Hezbollah force in the north. U.S. officials believe Israel would struggle in a two-front war and that such a conflict could draw in both the United States and Iran, the militia’s main supporter. American officials want to rein in Hezbollah too. U.S. officials feared that Mr. Netanyahu might approve a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah in the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas, which killed more than 1,400 people.

Persons: Biden, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr, Netanyahu Organizations: U.S, Hamas Locations: Lebanon, Israel, U.S, United States, Iran, East, Gaza

☆ U.S. officials say the death toll from the Gaza hospital blast is between 100-300, according to early assessments.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Julian E. Barnes | More About Julian E. Barnes | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

American intelligence agencies estimate that a deadly blast at a Gaza hospital on Tuesday killed between 100 and 300 people, but cautioned that their assessments could change, according to U.S. officials and an unclassified intelligence assessment. The unclassified estimate was made Wednesday evening as U.S. officials worked to determine the cause and casualty toll from the blast. But intelligence officials cautioned that they do not fully understand what happened at the hospital and are continuing to collect information. “Israel Probably Did Not Bomb Gaza Strip Hospital,” said the unclassified intelligence assessment drafted on Wednesday. That technology has proved critical to the American assessment that Israel was not responsible for the blast at the hospital.

Persons: Israel, “, ” Organizations: Gaza’s Al, Al, Hospital, United, Hamas, White House, Congress Locations: Gaza, Gaza’s, Gaza’s Al Ahli, “ Israel, United States, Palestinian, U.S

American officials say they have multiple strands of intelligence — including infrared satellite data — indicating that the deadly blast at a Gaza hospital on Tuesday was caused by Palestinian fighters. The intelligence includes satellite and other infrared data showing a launch of a rocket or missile from Palestinian fighter positions within Gaza. American intelligence agencies have also analyzed open-source video of the launch showing that it did not come from the direction of Israeli military positions, the officials said. Israeli officials have also provided the United States with intercepts of Hamas officials saying the strike came from forces aligned with Palestinian militant groups. Multiple officials said the evidence gathered so far refutes claims that Israeli forces were responsible for the blast and was strong enough for President Biden to make comments supporting Israel’s account of events.

Persons: ”, Adrienne Watson, Biden Organizations: Palestinian, National Security Council, U.S Locations: Gaza, American, United States, Israel

Ukraine will retake the fiercely contested eastern city of Bakhmut from Russia by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted during his visit to Washington, an assertion that shows the gulf between Kyiv and American war planners who believe that Ukraine should be focusing more on the south. Mr. Zelensky, at a meeting on Thursday with American editors, also predicted that Ukrainian troops would “de-occupy two more cities” taken by Russia. And contrary to expectations from military analysts in the West, Mr. Zelensky said Ukraine would fight through the winter, without a pause. “We will do everything not to stop during difficult days, in autumn, with not good weather,” he said. “And in winter.”

Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, Zelensky, “ Locations: Ukraine, Bakhmut, Russia, Washington, Kyiv, West

As China’s spy balloon drifted across the continental United States in February, American intelligence agencies learned that President Xi Jinping of China had become enraged with senior Chinese military generals. The spy agencies had been trying to understand what Mr. Xi knew and what actions he would take as the balloon, originally aimed at U.S. military bases in Guam and Hawaii, was blown off course. Mr. Xi was not opposed to risky spying operations against the United States, but American intelligence agencies concluded that the People’s Liberation Army had kept Mr. Xi in the dark until the balloon was over the United States. American officials would not discuss how spy agencies gleaned this information. But in details reported here for the first time, they discovered that when Mr. Xi learned of the balloon’s trajectory and realized it was derailing planned talks with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, he berated senior generals for failing to tell him that the balloon had gone astray, according to American officials briefed on the intelligence.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Xi, derailing, Antony J, Blinken Organizations: People’s Liberation Army Locations: United States, China, Guam, Hawaii

☆ C.I.A. Discloses Identity of Second Spy Involved in ‘Argo’ Operation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Julian E. Barnes | More About Julian E. Barnes | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the midst of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, the C.I.A. began what came to be noted as one of the spy agency’s most successful publicly known operations: the rescue of six American diplomats who had escaped the overrun U.S. Embassy — using a fake movie as the cover story. “Argo,” the real-life 2012 movie about the C.I.A.’s fake movie, portrayed a single C.I.A. officer, Tony Mendez, played by Ben Affleck, sneaking into Tehran to rescue the American diplomats in a daring operation. For the first time on Thursday, the C.I.A.

Persons: “, Tony Mendez, Ben Affleck, Ed Johnson, Mr, Johnson, Mendez Organizations: Embassy Locations: Iran, U.S, Tehran, cajole

The Pentagon has provided Patriot air defense systems and cajoled allies to provide S-300 air defense ammunition, both of which have proven effective. It has also provided other air defenses like the Avenger system and the Hawk air defense system. But Ukraine does not have enough air defense systems to cover the entire country, and must pick the sites it defends. Today, Russian officials have remade their economy to focus on defense production. As a result, military production has not only recovered but surged.

Persons: Russia’s Organizations: Pentagon Locations: Moscow, Russia, Kyiv, Ukraine, United States, Washington

African leaders allied with Russia had grown used to dealing with Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the swaggering, profane mercenary leader who traveled the continent by private jet, offering to prop up shaky regimes with guns and propaganda in return for gold and diamonds. But the Russian delegation that toured three African countries last week was led by a very different figure, the starchy deputy defense minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov. Dressed in a khaki uniform and a “telnyashka” — the horizontally-striped undergarment of Russian armed forces — he signaled conformity and restraint, giving assurances wrapped in polite language. “We will do our best to help you,” he said at a news conference in Burkina Faso. The contrast with the flamboyant Mr. Prigozhin could not have been sharper, and it aligned with the message the Kremlin was delivering: After Mr. Prigozhin’s death in a plane crash last month, Russia’s operations in Africa were coming under new management.

Persons: Yevgeny V, Yunus, bek Yevkurov, —, ”, Prigozhin, Prigozhin’s Locations: Russia, Burkina Faso, Africa

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